One of the main aims of Qatar National Vision 2030 is to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on the hydrocarbon industries. The country’s economy is one of the fastest-growing in the Middle East and the world.
Economic Growth and Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The economy weathered the impact of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the blockade that was imposed on 5 June 2017, with positivity after borders reopened following the AlUla Declaration in January 2021.
The 2024 Article IV Mission to Qatar by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued in May states, ‘Qatar launched the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3) with bold initiatives, aiming at boosting non-hydrocarbon productivity, enabling private sector-driven growth, and enhancing climate sustainability. The strategy’s emphasis is in line with past IMF advice and very much welcome. The post-FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™ growth normalisation is expected to bottom out in the near term. The medium-term outlook is more favourable, as average growth is expected to be lifted to around 4½% by the significant LNG production expansion and initial gains from implementing NDS3.’ imf.org
One of the main aims of Qatar National Vision 2030 is to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on the hydrocarbon industries. As per the IMF report, NDS3 2024–2030 provides an opportunity to accelerate economic transformation toward a knowledge-based and inclusive economy supported by private-sector led growth.
According to the National Statistics centre at the General Secretariat of the National Planning Council (formerly the Planning and Statistics Authority), the quarterly GDP estimates at constant prices in Q1 2023 is estimated at QAR198.74 bn, a decrease of 8.7% compared to Q4 2022, and an increase of 1.0% year-on-year (y-o-y).
The quarterly GDP at constant prices is QAR170.10 bn, a decrease of 3.9% compared to Q4 2022, and an increase of 2.7% y-o-y.
Export, Import and Trade Surplus
For Q1 2024, data stated the merchandise trade balance surplus – the difference between total exports and imports – was QAR53.2 bn, down from QAR68.4 bn in Q1 2023.
Total exports of goods (including exports of goods of domestic origin and re-exports) amounted to QAR87.6 bn, a decrease of 3.3% compared to Q4 2023 and a decrease of 8.6% y-o-y. Imports was QAR34.4 bn, an increase of 13.4% compared to Q4 2023 and an increase of 25.4% y-o-y.
Asia was the principal destination for exports and the first origin of imports, at 81.0% and 39.3% respectively, followed by the GCC and the EU.
The Budget
The State Budget for 2024 was announced in December 2023, with total revenue expected to be QAR202.0 bn, a 11.4% decrease compared to the 2023 budget total revenues estimates. HE Ali bin Ahmed Al Kuwari, the Minister of Finance, stated this decrease in revenues was due to assuming an average oil price of USD60 per barrel for 2024 instead of USD65 per barrel in 2023, based on international estimates for oil prices in 2024 and conservative estimates for oil and gas revenues. The estimates of total oil and gas revenues for 2024 amount to QAR159.0 bn (a 14.5% decrease) with the estimates of non-oil revenues for 2024 at QAR43.0 bn, an increase of approximately 2.4% against 2023.
Expenditures is increased by 1.0% to reach QAR200.9 bn, due to a rise in the allocations for salaries and wages to QAR64 bn. Allocations for both current expenditures and secondary capital expenditures are also increased by 6.4% and 27.5% respectively. Major capital expenditures are decreased by nearly 8.3% due to the completion of many economic and infrastructure projects.
According to HE Al Kuwari, the 2024 budget continues to focus on achieving the goals of Qatar National Vision 2030, namely the development of human capital by focusing on the health and education sectors – allocations for these two sectors constitute 20% of the total budget. Additionally, the goals relating to diversifying the local economy and enhancing its competitiveness sees allocations for the communications and IT sector doubled compared to 2023.
The state has a commitment to pay the equivalent of approximately QAR7.3 bn of public debt dues in 2024. Therefore, the cash deficit for 2024 at the oil price of USD60 per barrel is estimated at approximately QAR6.2 bn. This can be covered from the surplus of in addition to using domestic and external debt instruments as required.
Inflation and Cost of Living
In April 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), used to calculate inflation rates in Qatar, reached 107.12 points, an increase of 0.42% m-o-m and an increase of 0.71% y-o-y.
Population and the Labour Force
Total population in April 2024 was 3,098,866: males 2,190,411; females 908,455.
The World Bank states Qatar has one the lowest percentages of unemployed people, declining over the last 30 years from 0.81% in 1991 to 0.17% in 2021. Youth unemployment is just 0.5% of total population.